Where do Americans stand in the face of Trump’s legal danger?

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly roundup of polls.

On Monday, FBI agents searched Mar-a-Lago, the Florida estate of former President Donald Trump, with a warrant to investigate whether he mishandled or retained classified documents in violation of the Presidential Archives Act, which obliges presidents to hand over any written documents. related to their official duties.

The dust is still settling on what exactly will result from the search – for example, what kind of classified information does the FBI suspect Trump is in possession of? But a YouGov poll taken on August 9 found that 62% of Americans thought it was either “a very big problem” (45%) or “somewhat a problem” (17%) that Trump kept classified documents. after leaving office. . That said, as we’ve seen in previous Trump investigations, public opinion is sharply divided along partisan lines, and Americans generally remain wary of taking action against him. That same Aug. 9 YouGov poll, for example, found that 76% of Democrats — and 44% of independents — said they would consider this a really big deal, compared to just 12% of Republicans. And an Aug. 10 Politico/Morning Consult poll backs up that split: 81% of registered Democratic voters said the research was based on evidence that Trump had committed a crime, while just 16% of Republicans agreed.

We don’t have any other non-partisan polls yet, but these results are consistent with polls that followed two similar stories earlier this year. First, in February, news broke that the National Archives and Records Administration had recovered 15 boxes of documents from Mar-a-Lago that they said Trump should not have had in his possession, and then the New York Times reporter Maggie Haberman has released explosive details from her forthcoming book about the former president clogging a White House toilet with papers he tried to flush. A Feb. 16-20 Suffolk University/USA Today poll, for example, found that 56 percent of registered voters believed the National Archives retrieving such documents from Trump was a serious matter warranting investigation. But again, there were stark differences by party, with 88% of Democrats saying there should be an investigation, compared to just 27% of Republicans. Yet a Feb. 12-15 survey by The Economist/YouGov found that 79% of Americans think Trump taking classified documents home is more “wrong” than “right” — including 61% Republicans and 91% democrats.

This The Economist/YouGov poll went further, however, by comparing Trump’s breach of security to Hillary Clinton’s use of a personal email system to conduct government business as secretary of state. And what he found was that a similar share of Americans viewed the actions of Trump and Clinton as very or somewhat serious. For example, 47% said Trump’s security breach was “very serious,” compared to 43% who said the same about Clinton’s problem. Notably, however, there were strong partisan divisions on these issues, with 93% of Democrats and 48% of Republicans saying Trump’s actions were at least somewhat serious compared to 91% of Republicans and 56% of Democrats who said the same thing about Clinton’s actions.

It remains to be seen what legal action, if any, might stem from this week’s FBI research, but public opinion on past Trump investigations offers some clues as to how Americans might feel about it. Consider Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election. After the Mueller report was released in April 2019, polls found Americans unable to agree on Investigation Findings: A Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted at the time found that 81% of Democrats said they believed Trump interfered in Mueller’s investigation for level of obstruction of the justice, while 77% of Republicans said the opposite.

Moreover, Americans have been reluctant to take action against Trump even if they believe he has done something wrong. For example, the same Washington Post/ABC News poll found that shortly after the release of the Mueller report, 56% of Americans said Congress should not begin impeachment proceedings, which was 10 percentage points higher than what the poll had found just months earlier, in August 2018. It was a similar story regarding Trump’s first impeachment trial. In January 2020, after the House voted to impeach Trump but before the Senate voted to acquit him, about half of Americans (51%) said they viewed impeachment as a waste of Congressional time, according to a report. FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos poll. That said, there are exceptions that show tougher public stances on holding Trump accountable: A recent poll -/PBS NewsHour/Marist College reported that 50% of Americans believe Trump should be criminally charged based on the evidence presented during congressional hearings on January 11. 6 insurrection at the Capitol.

To be sure, the FBI’s search for Trump’s estate is just the latest in a long line of legal issues Trump faces. In fact, that’s not even the only development in his legal troubles this week. The question now is whether things will be different in the public eye this time around. But if previous surveys are any indication, that doesn’t seem likely.

Other surveys bSite (s

  • Among Americans with social media, more than half (54%) said their posts don’t accurately reflect their daily lives, according to a CivicScience survey conducted July 12-19. And among adults who said they spent four or more hours on social media a day, 66% said they felt “very” or “fairly strongly” stressed in the past week. Those who spent the least amount of time on social media – less than an hour a day – also reported stress, but at a slightly lower rate: 51%.
  • Related to the above, 57% of Americans said they wanted to “spend a few days” off-grid “without expecting to answer any calls, texts, or messages online,” according to a YouGov poll from 5 august. This was particularly true among adults aged 30-44 (61%) and 45-64 (63%), while it was least true among those under 30 (48%).
  • Of Americans who have been employed, 81% said they have quit a job at least once in their lifetime, according to a YouGov survey conducted July 27-29. However, this varied across income levels, with people in higher income brackets more likely to have quit at some point. Ninety percent of those with household incomes over $100,000 reported quitting their job, compared to 83% among those with household incomes between $50,000 and $100,000 and 76% among those whose family income is less than $50,000.
  • Another scoop on sweet treats: Crunch ice cream bars were Americans’ favorite treat in ice cream trucks, according to a July 28-31 YouGov poll. The survey ranked the items by “winning percentage,” or how often one treat won over another in a head-to-head match. However, the Crunch Ice Cream Bar’s popularity was not overwhelming, reaching 64.2%. It barely edged out the competition, which included baguettes (64.1%), vanilla ice cream sandwiches (64.1%), twist cones (62.4%) and Klondike bars (60 .1%). For those of you wondering, the Choco Taco, which will likely be discontinued soon, came in 11th, with 55.2%.

Biden endorsement

Where do Americans stand in the face of Trumps legal

According to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential endorsement tracker, 40.0% of Americans approve of the job Biden is doing as president, while 55.4% disapprove (a net approval rating of -15.4 points). At the same time last week, 39.2% approved and 55.7% disapproved (a net approval rating of -16.5 points). A month ago, Biden had an approval rating of 38.5% and a disapproval rating of 56.0%, for a net approval rating of -17.4 points.

Generic Ballot

1660370611 38 Where do Americans stand in the face of Trumps legal

In our generic Congressional ballot poll average, Democrats currently lead Republicans by 0.2 points (43.9% to 43.7%). A week ago, Republicans and Democrats were roughly tied (44.2% to 44.2%). This time last month, voters preferred Republicans by 2.0 points (45.1% to 43.1%).

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